Author: Tarun Shetty

Introvert who did engineering by accident and MBA by choice. Better at writing than speaking.

Selection By Stats – Cricket ODI XI

My last post , inspired by a Cricinfo series, selected a ODI XI from players between 1995 to 2017. The team was compiled basis my gut feel, intuition and personal bias – heart over head really. In this post the attempt is to arrive at a ODI XI basis career statistics. I understand that cricket statisticians today use a number of metrics apart from the traditional metrics. However for the sake of simplicity, I have considered batting average and strike rate for batsmen and bowling average and economy rate for bowlers. For all-rounders it’s a combination of the batting and bowling averages. One adjustment I have made is I have only considered performances against test playing countries and excluded the so-called “minnows”.  As you will see the team is fairly different from the previous team and does have a few surprises – not that surprised by this though. All stats have been taken for Cricinfo Statsguru.

1. Wicket Keepers: The shortlist has three players – Dhoni, Gilchrist and Sangakarra. I have assumed all three are good enough keepers and have selected purely on basis on batting ability. Following graph plots average on X-Axis and Strike Rate on Y-Axis:Wicket Keepers

MS Dhoni has a superior average over the others and a strike rate of ~90. While Gilchrist has a better strike rate, MS Dhoni’s superior average more than makes up for it.

2. Batsmen: Whole host of batsmen in the short list. The graph below is a revelation! Look at where the RCB batting unit of ABD and Kohli are at : 50+ avg and 90 + strike rate. While one may argue that this was due to better batting conditions, the fact remains that they along with Amla are the only contemporaries in that part of the chart. Selections: ABD, Virat Kohli, H Amla and Sachin Tendulkar. If i had to do a fifth choice – either Bevan or maybe Ponting. Any of the other 4 could happily open the innings.

3.Batsmen

3. All Rounders: In my previous post i had separated spin and pace bowling all rounders. What I have done now is lump them together and see how it pans out. The markers in orange are spinners and the rest are pacers. Just a note of caution – top right is not the best quadrant here – its bottom right – higher batting and lower bowling average then the more valuable you are. I have created 4 quadrants with 30 as the cutoff for both batting and bowling averages. The bottom left are bowling allrounders, the top right are batting allrounders, the top left are players who should not be considered and the final quadrant are probably genuine all rounders. As you can see spinners just don’t make the cut!

Andrew Flintoff the only one who just about fits into the All Rounders category – batting average just over 30 and bowling average just around 27. I would then pick up the closest from the other two categories – Shaun Pollock by being the only one in the “bowlers who can bat” category gets in. He has a 25 bowling average which is good enough for a front line bowler. Lance Klusener is at the border of the two categories and is the third choice. If at all I had to choose a spinner it would still be Shakib.

All Rounders.png

4. Bowlers: Like all rounders I combined the spinners and the fast bowlers. I also ignored the distinction between left and right arm bowlers. Spinners are highlighted in orange.The data is quite conclusive – Allan Donald & McGrath are the fast bowlers who get in. Spinners surprisingly is a toss between Ajmal and Saqlain with slight edge for Ajmal.

Bowlers

So here’s the final team: Sachin Tendulkar, H Amla, Virat Kohli, AB De Villiers, M Dhoni, Lance Klusener, A Flintoff, S Pollock, S Ajmal, Donald, McGrath. The team’s more diverse than the other team in terms of international representation. 3 Indians, 5 South Africans, 1 Pakistani, 1 Englishman and just 1 Australian. 12th Man – M Bevan / Ponting. The team has a slightly longer tail as compared to the previous team and lesser variety in bowling – I would still prefer the previous team 🙂

 

Cricket ODI XI for the last 25 Years

As mentioned in an earlier post, Cricinfo, as a part of its 25 year anniversary celebrations, is inviting readers to pick their dream team across formats from 1995 to 2017. The shortlist can be found here. With 46 players the shortlist is larger than the test shortlist and consists of 21 batsmen ( including 3 keepers ),  11 all-rounders and 14 bowlers including 4 spinners. Dale Steyn, Rohit Sharma and Virender Sehwag were surprising omissions in the list. Readers have to pick at least 5 from the 21 batsmen including atleast 1 keeper and a minimum of 5 from the bowlers and all-rounders. The one additional slot is up to our discretion. Here’s my pick from the list. This is again not basis any statistics but only from what i have watched.

Adam Gilchrist (WK ), Sachin Tendulkar, Ricky Ponting, AB De Villiers, Michael Bevan, Shakib Al Hasan, Lance Klusener, Shaun Pollock, Wasim Akram, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath.

This team is slightly more concentrated as compared to the test XI – 5 Australians, 3 South Africans, 1 Indian, 1 Bangladeshi, 1 Pakistani.  4 of them also feature in the test XI ( Gilchrist, Tendulkar, Akram, Warne )

In terms of team mix I have gone for 4 specialist batsmen and 1 keeper. I have added 3 all-rounders to the team which includes one spinner, one medium pacer and one all-rounder who is good enough to open the bowling. In terms of specialist bowlers, I have opted for 1 left arm fast bowler who is also a decent bat, 1 leg spinner and 1 fast bowler. Theoretically the team bats all the way down to No. 9 and has six full-time bowlers in addition to a couple of batsmen who can roll their arms if required. The only missing link is an off spinner and like in the test XI, I would choose Murali as the 12th man.

The rationale for the choices are as follows:

1. Openers – Sachin Tendulkar and Adam Gilchrist: Sachin Tendulkar is a straight shoo-in. No words are enough to describe his genius. Period. Adam Gilchrist is a personal favorite. He changed the way keepers were looked upon and his stint as an opener for Australia was characterized by multiple hard-hitting innings where he took the game away from the opposition in no time.

3. Ricky Ponting: Ricky Ponting at his peak was an unstoppable force. He virtually decimated bowling attacks across the world. He also had the uncanny knack of coming good on big occasions. Indians would well remember his century in the 2003 world cup finals. He also captained his team to multiple world cup victories and by the virtue of it would also be the captain of this team. Many also regarded him to the best fielder in his time – quite an achievement considering that his career overlapped with Jonty Rhodes. Lara was a close contender for this number 3 slot.

4. AB De Villiers: Another personal favorite. In my mind ( and in the minds of a lot of other cricket fans ), this man is the most complete batsman of all time. He is still not spoken about in the same breadth as a Tendulkar or a Richards but i believe cricket historians will judge him much better. His fielding is no less brilliant and he can genuinely claim to a successor of Jonty Rhodes. ABD along with Ponting would be the fielding lynchpins of the team.

5. Michael Bevan: This was a tough one and may surprise people especially when the shortlist consisted the likes of Virat Kohli. I was very tempted to go for Kohli but finally settled for Bevan. Bevan at one point of time had an atrociously high batting average – yes even better than Tendulkar. He used to bat at 5/6 relentlessly accumulating of runs in the middle over at a brisk pace and was the original king of finishes. He was also very good in batting with the tail and won many matches for Australia.

6. Shakib Al Hasan: I wanted to have atleast one all-rounder with spin bowling capabilities. The choices available were Afridi, Jayasurya, Shoaib Malik and Shakib. Shakib is a much better bowler than Jayasurya and Shoaib Malik and while he may not be as explosive a batsman as Jayasurya and Afridi, he certainly is a lot more consistent and reliable as compared to the other two. He also has played in the middle order most of his career as compared to Afridi and Jayasurya who has their best days as openers. With respect to Malik, while both Shakib & Malik bring similar value in terms of bat, Shakib’s ability to be both a  wicket taker and a containing bowler gives him an edge over Malik.

7. Lance Klusener: Lance Klusener was the man of the tournament in the 1999 World Cup held in England. He was an explosive hitter and had he played a generation later he would have been the toast of T20 leagues. He was also an effective bowler and could have walked into most teams for either of his skill sets. His presence in this team adds considerable balance by providing the team a genuine hard-hitting batsman at 7 and his bowling abilities give the team a valuable 6th option who could bowl 10 overs if needed. This too was a tough call considering that the shortlist had the likes of Shane Watson, Jacques Kallis and Chris Cairns. I just feel that Lance Klusener is suited more for a # 7 position rather than a Watson who would be better off opening or a Kallis at 3/4. While Cairns could be as entertaining as Klusener and was of similar bowling abilities, I believe that Klusener’s batting had that extra additionally explosiveness that gave him an edge over Cairns.

8. Shaun Pollock: Shaun Pollock opened the bowling for South Africa for a number of years and was known to be extremely measly with conceding runs while having the knack of taking wickets regularly. His bowling is good enough for him to walk into the team as the main bowler and hence having him in this team as a the first change bowler adds a lot of heft to the bowling. He can also come back in the death overs and keep things tight. In addition to this he was quite a handy bat and could wield the long handle to good effect when required. Flintoff was a close contender but i think Pollock is a much superior bowler and hence the right pick for number 8.

9. Wasim Akram: As stated in the earlier post on the test XI, Akram is probably the greatest left arm fast bowler of all time. He had a wide variety of deliveries including a deadly yorker and was virtually unplayable when he was at his best. He was instrumental in Pakistan lifting the 1992 World Cup and had a fairly successful stint as a captain. He was also a decent bat and more than accomplished to strike a few long blows at # 9. Mitchell Johnson and Chaminda Vaas were other contenders for the left armer slot but Akram is streets ahead.

10. Shane Warne: He along with Murali were by far the best spinners in the time period considered. I have a preference for leg spin and hence he gets the cut over Murali.

11. Glenn McGrath: By far the meanest of all bowlers who played in this area. At his best he regularly took the best batsman of the opposite team early. His record against both Lara and Tendulkar are exemplary.  His presence was an important element of the all-conquering Aussie team of the late 1990’s and 2000s.

Like the test XI, I will come up with a follow on post selecting a XI purely on basis of statistics.

 

 

Cricket Test XI For The Last 25 Years

ESPN Cricinfo as a part of its 25 years celebration recently announced that they would be picking dream team XI across all formats from cricketers who played in the 25 year period from March 1993 to December 2017. This is not the first time they are indulging in the exercise of picking dream teams : Their all time XI’s can be found here. On this occasion though the restriction of 25 years gives an opportunity to select players across relatively similar eras and similar playing conditions. An added advantage for my generation is that we would have watched most of them play.  The shortlisted players for the last 25 years can be found here.

The shortlist has a total of 37 players with 5 openers, 14 middle order batsmen, 6 keepers and 12 bowlers which includes 3 spinners and 9 fast bowlers. Here’s my pick of the XI:

Virender Sehwag, Alistair Cook, Jacques Kallis, Sachin Tendulkar, Brian Lara, AB De Villiers, Adam Gilchrist, Shane Warne, Wasim Akram, Dale Steyn and Curtly Ambrose.

Its a fairly global team – 2 West Indians, 1 Englishman, 3 South Africans, 1 Pakistani, 2 Indians and 2 Australians.

The rationale for the choice are as follows:

Openers – Alistair Cook & Virender Sehwag:  Traditionally openers have been slow starters with mandate of seeing of the new ball and laying a platform for the middle order to build upon on. However in the last 25 years, we have seen the rise of swashbuckling openers who have liked to take the attack to the opposition. Keeping in sync with the times and yet making an allowance for the old school variety while maintaining a left right combination, i would pick Sehwag and Cook. The former redefined test batting with his fearless entertaining style and the latter has been one of the most phenomenal run getters in recent times with a strong record across the globe.

Middle Order: Jacques Kallis, Sachin Tendulkar, Brian Lara and AB De Villiers: Sachin Tendulkar and Brian Lara are a cut above the rest and get a straight walk in. Every team probably needs one batsmen who can play the sheet anchor role and obvious candidates include Dravid, Chanderpaul, Younis Khan, Steve Waugh. Jacques Kallis was of a similar mould and has a batting record that could rival any of the others, but what really flipped the case in his favour was his bowling abilities. In fact the combined package is so good that there are many who put him on par with Gary Sobers as the greatest all rounder ever. Regardless of whether we agree to this comparison, the fact remains that having him in the team allows a fifth bowling options which adds considerable balance to the team. The last slot goes to go ABD a versatile batsman who has the ability to execute “blockathons” to bail his team out of tough situations and also the ability to score at fast rates resulting in multiple match winning innings over the years

Wicket Keeper – Adam Gilchrist: Gilchrist was the pioneering keeper batsman and brought in an additional dimension to the great Australian team of the late 90’s and the 2000’s. He was also exceptional behind the stumps and could handle both spinners and fast bowlers.

Bowlers – Shane Warne, Dale Steyn,Curtly Ambrose and Wasim Akram Have opted for 1 spinner and 3 fast bowlers. Spinner slot was a toss between Warne & Murali. While both have great records, Warne bowled most of his career outside the sub continent and yet was a strike bowling option for his captains contributing substantially to their victories. Among the fast bowlers, i have opted for variety with Wasim Akram the only left arm bowler in the list who was also a master exponent of the reverse swing. His batting abilities are an added bonus and he thus potentially slots in as a bowling all rounder. Dale Steyn’s record in the last few years puts him way ahead of his contemporaries with multiple match winning performances even in the sub continental dustbowls. The last slot was a choice between Curtly Ambrose and Glenn McGrath – both tall bowlers blessed with accuracy. They barely gave any runs away and had the uncanny knack of picking wickets that mattered. Went with Ambrose simply out of personal choice. ( Plus never liked McGrath for his over the top sledging )

12th Man: Would choose Murali as the 12th man and he could play in for any of the seamers in conditions that favour spin.

The above list is subjective and needless to say not driven by dispassionate analysis and statistics. Next post will come up with a team based purely on statistics.

 

Walmart – Flipkart Deal – Are Amazon and the Bansals the real winners?

After months of speculation, Walmart on 9th May 2018 finally announced that it will be buying a 77% stake in India’s leading e-commerce company Flipkart for $ 16bn thus valuing the latter at $20 bn. Media reports seem to indicate that Amazon did put in a strong counter bid and atleast one major investor, Softbank, was interested in pursuing Amazon. However other investors and the promoters seemed to be more inclined towards Walmart for a multiple of reasons including regulatory risks and operational control. Now that the deal is done let us look at the major players/stakeholders involved and try to understand who gets to benefit from the deal.

Flipkart over the years has built market leadership in the e-commerce space in India. The company has been a strong innovator at the forefront of shifting buying behavior from traditional channels to online channels. The company has generated scintillating growth aided by funding from marquee investors such as Softbank, Tiger Global and Tencent to name a few. However this growth has come at the cost of massive burn translating into bleeding bottom lines. In addition to this Flipkart has been fiercely competing with Amazon for market share thus forcing it to sustain discounts to retain share and thus further adding to the burn. Amazon in a short period of time has given Flipkart a run for its money and every time Flipkart has announced a fund raise, Amazon has responded to it by announcing increasing capital commitments and has indicated that it is willing to further invest aggressively to attain market leadership in India. In such a scenario where Flipkart had to contend with a strong rival with deep pockets, Flipkart would have had to continue to burn and therefore would have to be in the market for a funding round more frequently than it would probably like. This potentially could have distracted the company and at some point investors would start questioning the feasibility of the model. An IPO would also not have been a lucrative choice to raise capital as its high burn would have put off more sanguine public investors. Considering this, merging into Walmart provides Flipkart with a strong parent whose management has a long term strategic view rather than a short to mid term financial view of the transaction.

For the Flipkart founders, this is an incredible deal. While they have in the past mentioned aspirations of building a $ 100 bn company and made vociferous statements about their “Indianness”, somewhere down the road they seem to have come to the conclusion that being an independent company would not help them withstand the onslaught of Amazon. By exiting now they are probably selling at peak valuations and while there is always a possibility of a further upside, the downside risks are much higher for them. ( Media reports indicate one promoter is exiting completely while the other is exiting partially – I think the former is wiser! )

For Flipkart investors too this is a good deal as it provides them an exit at probably peak valuations. Flipkart’s path to profitability is long drawn process and they would need to have been extremely patient to wait for a IPO to make an exit.

For Walmart this is a tricky deal and one that indicates that they may have been too desperate. Walmart has made investments in e-commerce firms earlier with limited success. The deal is also fraught with multiple risks for Walmart. Politically many groups in India opposed to foreign direct investment in retail would view this as a backdoor entry. If these groups whip up enough hysteria then Walmart may be bogged down in managing this rather than focusing on running and integrating the business. Secondly investor reaction to this deal has been adverse. Walmart’s share price fell ~4% post the announcement of the deal indicating investor skepticism.  Walmart will have to consolidate Flipkart into its books and this will result into a huge negative impact on its profitability. Walmart has also been exiting in developed markets and seems to be investing these proceeds in emerging markets with the hope that these will pay off in the longer run. However it remains to be seen if investors will be willing to be patient with these moves. What will most likely happen is that Walmart will continue to face investor heat for the burn in this deal and in response to that may force Flipkart to reduce burn. If it does so it risks losing leadership as Amazon may continue to spend aggressively. It will also be a tectonic shift for Flipkart employees who have been used to revenue maximization rather than profit maximization which in turn may allow Amazon to make further inroads.

For Amazon this is probably a good outcome in spite of losing out in the bidding process. If Amazon had won the bid it would still have to get regulatory clearances and probably have a long drawn integration process between the two companies. By losing the bid, Amazon can focus on growing organically – a model that has worked well for it in India. Amazon also now has a rival in India that will be more rational and one that it has had experience in competing with. As long as Flipkart was controlled by investors that gave it a licence to burn, Amazon had to also respond with burn to maintain market share. With Walmart in the driver’s seat, sooner or later profitability pressures faced by Walmart would lead to a reduced burn mandate for Flipkart which in turn allows Amazon to either curb its own burn levels or spend more to capture higher market share. Amazon has also had considerable success in previous battles with Walmart and will certainly prefer competing with a Flipkart owned by Walmart rather than Flipkart driven by a Softbank-Tiger Global combine. All in all Amazon has more patient investors as opposed to Walmart, understands the online space better than Walmart, probably has better technological edge and does not have any potential political risks that could distract it thus giving a considerable advantage over Walmart.

To summarize all of Flipkarts business model risks are now transferred to Walmart in addition to political and execution risks for $ 20 bn which only benefits the promoters and investors who will laugh their way to the bank. The deal also provides Amazon a potentially weaker competitor in the mid to long-term and increases its chances to dominate the Indian online retail space.